What are the best conservation options for protecting desert amphibians?

Methods

Summary

We are currently working on developing statistical models for predicting the extinction risk of the federally-threatened Chiricahua leopard frog. Climate and land use is expected to change over time, so we need models that can predict how we expect the population to change as well. In addition, we need models that can incorporate the logistical and financial constraints of possible management actions that may be implemented to improve population viability. We are using a long-term dataset (10 years) on the presence and absence of amphibian species at specific ponds on the refuge to evaluate our statistical models and predict the best management action under uncertain future conditions. Possible management actions we have identified that we are going to evaluate in our models include education of refuge visitors, pond restoration, and building additional ponds within the refuge. 

Challenges

The biggest challenges we expect to face are accurately predicting future climate and land use changes in our study area. To overcome these difficulties, we are partnering with researchers at the University of Arizona with expertise in hydrology and climate change to provide us with realistic scenarios of landscape and climate change.

Pre Analysis Plan

Our analysis will proceed by using data on whether each amphibian species is present or absent at ponds within the refuge. We can use these data on presence/absence to test statistical models regarding how environmental factors (e.g., average day time temperatures, precipitation) and management actions will influence amphibian extinction risk.