Complex Systems Research for Policy Innovation

"Everyone in a complex system has a slightly different interpretation. The more interpretations we gather, the easier it becomes to gain a sense of the whole.” - Margaret J. Wheatley

In our VanguardSTEM grant application for the Translating Evidence to Care for Child Farmworkers project, we describe the role of complex systems research (in this instance, community based system dynamics (CBSD)), in discovering stakeholder perspectives. People often think of stakeholders as policymakers, but, a stakeholder is anyone who has an insight into the structures and behaviors which reinforce a system. For instance, in the housing policy system, the renter impacted by the policy is a stakeholder, so is the landlord who owns rental properties, and the city councilman who proposed a new housing bill. As complex system researchers, we believe stakeholders are the problem experts, and that the process of sense-making offered by CBSD is an opportunity to model policy outcomes.

How does this happen?

Complex problems present as icebergs - multi-layered structures with much more than that which is visible above the water surface. Simultaneously, they are rarely static, every second, minute and hour, there is a change in the state of the problem, it is dynamic (see (Evbuoma et al, 2021 (a)) and (Evbuoma et al, 2021 (b)) respectively for methods briefs on the systems thinking iceberg and dynamic problems). By building Causal Loop Diagrams and other Group Model Building activities, each stakeholder dives beneath the surface to examine the iceberg, presenting their understanding in a series of balancing and reinforcing loops of system behavior (see Chapter 6.2.1 in (Lin et al. 2020) to learn more about Causal Loop Diagrams).

With a shared understanding, the system takes form, and we are better able to identify leverage points and answer questions like, "so we've changed the housing policy three times and renter complaints are still on the rise - why?" (see (Brown et al, 2019) for an excellent case study).

When is the problem "solved"?

A dynamic problem is constantly changing, reflecting the structures and behaviors of the system. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, and success is defined by the needs of stakeholders, the communit(ies) impacted by a problem. A novel policy may be fit for purpose today, but as the community evolves, so will their perspectives, and so will the need for policy.

I will conclude with a vignette shared by Donella Meadows, a pioneer in the field of systems science, in her seminal essay, "Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System":

"When I became a landlord, I spent a lot of time and energy trying to figure out what would be a “fair” rent to charge. I tried to consider all the variables, including the relative incomes of my tenants, my own income and cash flow needs, which expenses were for upkeep and which were capital expenses, the equity versus the interest portion of the mortgage payments, how much my labor on the house was worth, etc. I got absolutely nowhere. Finally I went to someone who specializes in giving money advice. She said: “You’re acting as though there is a fine line at which the rent is fair, and at any point above that point the tenant is being screwed and at any point below that you are being screwed. In fact there is a large grey area in which both you and the tenant are getting a good, or at least a fair, deal. Stop worrying and get on with your life.”